We’re just beginning to get our heads around Artificial Intelligence, but the machines are already making their next move: creativity. While we still think of imagination as an innately human capability, advances in computing power are making arts as diverse as architecture, music, movies, and material design into easily-accessible, programmable spaces. In some areas, machines have already surpassed human originality and quality – as rated by other humans – and more fields are likely to fall. Continue reading
With oil prices continuing at rock bottom levels with no end in sight, a new dialogue is emerging around whether excess supply is a long term prospect, only to be further enhanced by key end markets migrating to alternate approaches. Front and center in that discussion are the developments in automotive technology that will steadily increase vehicle fuel efficiencies, as attendees at a recent webinar (client registration required) on the future of automotive transportation will be well aware.
Following on from this, we’ve launched an EV Inflection Tracker, which analyzes how compelling automakers’ plug-in offerings are as a leading indicator of when EVs will be positioned to take over the automotive market. Lux Research defines the “EV Inflection Point” concept as the year range when plug-in cars (technically, both EVs and PHEVs) make up more than 50% of new car sales. We’re watching all the plug-in offerings but, most notably, for depth of competition in EVs with greater than 200 miles of driving range at a price point of $35,000 or less, around which time a significant acceleration of adoption can be expected. Given the lack of any vehicles, let alone a wide variety, that meets these criteria we’re far from the EV Inflection Point. In fact, in the 2016 edition of the Tracker, we estimate that the EV Inflection Point is in the 2035-2040 time-frame. This corresponds to three full model cycles worth of development and iteration: By then, for example, the Nissan Leaf will be in its fourth generation.
This 2016 snapshot can be further broken down by vehicle type, to look beyond the EV vehicle fleet as a proportion of the total fleet, and into how many truly viable EVs there are in each segment. Continue reading